Thailand's upgraded 2026 forecast rests on exports

The state planning agency’s improved 2026 forecast rests almost entirely on exports.

The read. On 17 August, Thailand’s state planning agency, the NESDC, raised its 2026 export-growth forecast sharply, from 9.6% to 15.1%, and nudged up its GDP forecast to 2.0–2.5% from a previous 1.5–2.5%. Second-quarter GDP also came in ahead of expectations, at 1.9%. The detail underneath is less encouraging. On a quarter-on-quarter basis the economy actually contracted by 0.2%, domestic demand stayed soft, and high household debt continues to hold back consumer spending. Almost all of the improvement is coming from exports rather than from anything happening inside the domestic economy.

What to watch. This makes Thailand more useful as a place to produce for export than as a market to sell into, at least for now. It is also worth keeping in mind that these are forecasts, not results: the upgrade depends on export orders that still have to come in, and if external demand cools, the revised numbers will come down with it.