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Weekly tracker · Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia Regulatory Monitor

What changed this week for foreign investors and companies operating in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam: the cross-sector issues in each market, and the sector developments worth acting on.

24–30 October 2026 Edition | Updated Weekly

This week · our read

Thailand backs rooftop solar and a petrochemical merger as SoftBank eyes Malaysia

Thailand's cabinet approved THB50 billion to help one million households install rooftop solar, and PTT Global Chemical and SCG Chemicals agreed terms to combine their olefins and polyolefins businesses, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval. The Bank of Thailand held its policy rate at 1.00% for a fourth straight meeting and raised its growth forecasts. In Malaysia, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said SoftBank plans about US$50 billion of AI and data-centre investment; SoftBank has not announced the figure. Ho Chi Minh City approved 12 projects worth about US$13.6 billion, led by the Can Gio transshipment port. Next to watch: the ASEAN Summit in Manila from 16 November and Bank Indonesia's decision on 18 November.

Rows of server and electrical cabinets along an aisle in a data-centre hall
Photo by Ismail Enes Ayhan on Unsplash

Chart of the week

One chart a week on the development we think matters most. Select the chart to enlarge it, or download it to share.

Infographic: SoftBank eyes US$50bn for Malaysian data centres. The key figures are listed next to the chart.
Tap the chart to enlarge it
Malaysia · Technology / Digital economy

SoftBank eyes US$50bn for Malaysian data centres

The read. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on 24 October that SoftBank is discussing a US$50 billion investment in Malaysia focused on AI and data centres. Anwar said he had discussed the plan with SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son by videoconference, and that two locations have been chosen: Kuching in Sarawak and a site in Peninsular Malaysia. The scale is significant. MIDA has recorded about US$94 billion (RM385.7 billion) of data-centre investment from 2021 to mid-2026. The SoftBank plan alone would equal about 53% of that total. The plan remains under discussion and has not been signed.

What to watchA signed agreement is the first test, followed by land and power allocation at the named sites. If the plan proceeds, large anchor tenants would drive demand for grid capacity, cooling and server equipment, including from Chinese suppliers. Investors should track whether the Kuching site draws on Sarawak's largely hydro-based power supply, and how the project fits Malaysia's existing data-centre approval rules.

Download the chart (PNG)

Source: The Edge Malaysia (Bloomberg) · The Star

Markets at a glance

Cross-sector issues that matter to every investor in each market, whatever the industry. Each box tracks up to three live topics and marks the ones that moved this week. Key numbers show the latest official figure and when it was released.

Indonesia

1 of 3 topics moved this week
Policy rate5.75%Held 21 Oct 2026Up 100 bp in 2026; deposit facility raised to 5.00% on 21 Oct
GDP growth5.29% y/yQ2 2026
Inflation3.28% y/ySep 2026Target 2.5% ± 1%

Market confidence and access to capital

Moved this week

On 15 October MSCI proposed moving Indonesia from Emerging Market to Standalone Market status, citing opaque shareholding structures and suspected coordinated trading; increases to Indonesian index weights are frozen in the meantime. Stocks fell 14.8% over 16 and 19 October, a record two-day fall worth about US$82 billion, leaving the market down about 40% this year. The exchange halved the daily down limit from 15% to 7% and said it would drop stocks with highly concentrated ownership from its benchmark index, and the Financial Services Authority announced Rp2.1 trillion (US$116.7 million) in fines on parties linked to alleged trading manipulation. Bank Indonesia has raised its policy rate by 100 basis points this year, to 5.75%, and on 21 October lifted its deposit facility rate to 5.00%; the rupiah was at 18,010 per US dollar on 20 October, near its June record low. On 27 October the 10-year government bond yield rose to 7.54%, its highest since October 2022 and up more than 140 basis points this year, as oil prices and the MSCI review weighed; the rupiah was near its record low.

Why it matters: A downgrade would reduce passive foreign demand for Indonesian equities and could raise the cost of capital for listed companies, alongside higher government borrowing costs that feed through to rupiah loans, including any planned listing or exit on the Jakarta exchange. Indonesia already has the highest policy rate of the four markets.

Next: MSCI feedback closes 30 Apr 2027; decision by 30 Jun 2027. Next Bank Indonesia decision 18 Nov.

Our analysis: Indonesia's Two Investment Stories: Record FDI and a Stock Market Under Scrutiny →

Sources: Bloomberg · MSCI · The Jakarta Post · ANTARA

The state's growing role through Danantara

No change this week · last update 21 Sep

Since 1 September, exports of coal, crude palm oil and ferroalloys go through the state-owned PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia under a centralised export system. On 21 September the financial regulator began demutualising the Indonesia Stock Exchange, and the sovereign fund Danantara is reported to be preparing to buy a 30–40% stake. Danantara is also reviewing the business model of state utility PLN (see sector highlights).

Why it matters: Foreign buyers, offtakers and power developers increasingly deal with Danantara-linked entities, so contract terms, pricing and approvals may change as these structures settle.

Sources: Indonesia Business Post · Capital Asia (caproasia)

New trade agreements

No change this week · last update 26 Sep

The government has targeted October 2026 for signing the Indonesia–EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, with entry into force expected in 2027 after ratification. The coordinating economic minister has said about 90% of Indonesian goods exported to the EU would then be duty-free. In late September, Indonesia and China agreed to speed up preparations for talks on a bilateral economic partnership agreement.

Why it matters: Duty-free access to the EU would make Indonesia a stronger base for EU-bound manufacturing and processing.

Next: Indonesia–EU signing, targeted for October 2026

Sources: ANTARA · Katadata · ANTARA

Malaysia

1 of 3 topics moved this week
Policy rate2.75%Held 3 Sep 2026Overnight policy rate
GDP growth5.3% y/yQ3 2026, advance estimateQ2: 6.0%. Official Q3 data on 18 Nov
Inflation1.8% y/ySep 2026Aug: 1.9%

Growth, rates and foreign inflows

No change this week · last update 16 Oct

Advance estimates show the economy grew 5.3% in the third quarter, after 6.0% in the second; official figures follow on 18 November. Bank Negara Malaysia held the overnight policy rate at 2.75% on 3 September, and inflation eased to 1.8% in September. Foreign investors put a record US$3.9 billion into Malaysian bonds in August, and S&P affirmed Malaysia's A- rating with a stable outlook on 29 September.

Why it matters: Malaysia offers the steadiest financing conditions of the four markets: low inflation, an unchanged policy rate and strong portfolio inflows.

Next: Official Q3 GDP, 18 Nov

Sources: The Star · Bernama · The Star · Malay Mail

Budget 2027

No change this week · last update 9 Oct

Tabled on 9 October, Budget 2027 raises total spending and investment to a record RM510 billion, from RM470 billion in 2026, and targets a fiscal deficit of 3.3% of GDP. The 2026 deficit is now estimated at 3.6%, above the 3.5% target, as fuel subsidies rose to RM40 billion because of the Middle East conflict.

Why it matters: The deficit path signals continued fiscal consolidation, but subsidy costs remain exposed to oil prices.

Sources: Business Today

Investment approvals

Moved this week

Malaysia approved RM218.5 billion of investment in the first half of 2026, up 11.7%, of which 58% was foreign; the largest foreign sources were the US, Singapore, Japan and China, and Selangor and Johor received the most. On 24 October Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son had chosen Kuching in Sarawak and Peninsular Malaysia for about US$50 billion of investment in AI, new technology and data centres. SoftBank has not announced the figure. MIDA records RM385.7 billion (about US$94 billion) of data-centre-related investment from 2021 to mid-2026.

Why it matters: Competition for land, power and skilled workers in Selangor and Johor is rising, much of it from data-centre projects; a SoftBank commitment would extend that pressure to Sarawak.

Sources: MIDA · The Edge Malaysia (Bloomberg) · The Star

Thailand

2 of 3 topics moved this week
Policy rate1.00%Held 28 Oct 2026Fourth straight hold; next decision 23 Dec
GDP growth1.9% y/yQ2 2026Q1: 2.8%
Inflation2.82% y/ySep 2026Core: 1.50%

US trade agreement

No change this week · last update 7 Oct

Thai goods have faced an additional 12.5% US Section 301 duty since 24 July, against 10% for Malaysia and Indonesia. On 7 October the Commerce Ministry said the core terms of an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade were agreed and only technical and legal wording remained. President Trump has written that he hopes to sign it during his Asia trip in November.

Why it matters: The lower 10% rate applies to economies that ban forced-labour imports or commit to do so in such an agreement, so signing would likely bring Thailand into the lower tier.

Next: ASEAN Summit, Manila, 16–18 Nov

Sources: The Nation · USTR · Bisnis Indonesia

Weak growth, low rates

Moved this week

The economy grew 1.9% in the second quarter, the slowest of the four markets. On 28 October the Bank of Thailand held its policy rate at 1.00% for a fourth straight meeting, by unanimous vote, and raised its growth forecasts to 2.4% for 2026 and 2.1% for 2027, while saying growth remains below potential. Inflation rose to 2.82% in September on fuel and food prices.

Why it matters: Baht borrowing costs are low and most economists expect them to stay at 1.00% through 2027; domestic demand remains soft.

Next: Monetary policy decision, 23 Dec

Sources: Bangkok Post · bne IntelliNews · Khaosod English · The Nation

Energy costs and rooftop solar

Moved this week

On 27 October the cabinet approved a THB50 billion (about US$1.48 billion) programme to help one million households install rooftop solar within a year, with a THB50,000 subsidy per household, and more than THB20 billion of smart-grid investment so households can sell surplus power to the grid. Fuel and food prices pushed inflation to 2.82% in September, and on 28 October the Bank of Thailand flagged the Middle East conflict and the limited room left for energy subsidies.

Why it matters: Energy costs remain the main pressure on Thai operators' margins. The solar programme creates near-term demand for panel, inverter, storage and installation suppliers and shifts some household demand off the grid.

Sources: The Edge Malaysia (Reuters) · PV Tech · The Nation · bne IntelliNews

Vietnam

No change this week
Policy rate4.50%Refinancing rateUnchanged through H1 2026
GDP growth9.95% y/yQ3 2026Jan–Sep: 9.01%
Inflation5.08% y/ySep 2026Jan–Sep average: 4.52%

Growth and foreign investment

No change this week · last update 5 Oct

GDP grew 9.95% in the third quarter and 9.01% in January–September. Registered foreign direct investment reached US$50.36 billion in the first nine months, up 76.4%, including US$29.24 billion in new projects. FTSE Russell upgraded Vietnam to Secondary Emerging Market status from 21 September.

Why it matters: Vietnam has the fastest growth of the four markets. Inflation, now above 5% and the highest of the four, is the main macro risk to watch.

Sources: VietnamPlus · Investment Monitor · VietnamPlus

Investment and licensing rules

No change this week · last update 18 Oct

Decree 342/2026/ND-CP took effect on 18 October, replacing Decree 09/2018 on foreign-invested trading and retail. Once a foreign investor holds 100 outlets under 500 m², 50 of 500–3,000 m² or 30 of 3,000 m² or more, further outlet licences need written approval from the public-security and defence ministries, and the economic needs test now applies only to investors from countries without a treaty commitment to abolish it. Separately, the Ministry of Finance is drafting Investment Law amendments that would let the government ease market-access restrictions periodically and extend fast-track "green lane" approvals to priority projects outside designated zones. The ministry also found that 10 of 91 restricted sectors require foreign investors to form joint ventures.

Why it matters: Retail and trading licences above set store counts now involve a security review. If passed, the Investment Law changes could lower entry costs in some restricted sectors.

Our analysis: Vietnam’s Investment-Law Amendment Seeks to Balance Speed and Predictability →

Sources: Emerhub · Decree text (LuatVietnam) · The Star

Rising labour and living costs

No change this week · last update 4 Oct

The Ministry of Home Affairs has proposed raising regional minimum wages by 7.8% from 1 January 2027, lifting the Region I floor to VND5.7 million (about US$217) a month. The government still has to approve it. Consumer prices rose 5.08% year on year in September.

Why it matters: Plan for higher wage and input costs in 2027 budgets.

Next: Proposed wage rise takes effect 1 Jan 2027 if approved

Sources: VnEconomy · VietnamPlus

Region & China

No change this week

US tariffs and transshipment rules

No change this week · last update 12 Oct

Since 24 July the US has applied additional Section 301 "forced labour" duties of 10% on Indonesia, Malaysia and Cambodia, and 12.5% on Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Singapore. A White House report on 13 August placed Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam in its second tier for transshipment; goods found to be illegally transshipped can face an extra 40% duty. A 15% tariff and minimum import prices on polysilicon products take effect on 4 December. The White House has confirmed President Trump will attend the ASEAN Summit in Manila on 16 November before APEC in Shenzhen.

Why it matters: For US-bound exports from the region, origin documentation and genuine local value added now matter as much as the headline tariff rate.

Next: ASEAN Summit, 16–18 Nov; APEC, Shenzhen, 17–19 Nov

Sources: Bisnis Indonesia · USTR · The Nation · Xinhua · Telangana Today (IANS)

China–ASEAN trade

No change this week · last update 14 Oct

China's trade with ASEAN rose 22.7% to 6.84 trillion yuan in January–September, faster than its trade with the EU (up 8.4%) or the US (up 4.1%). China's total trade passed 5 trillion yuan in a single month for the first time in September.

Why it matters: ASEAN is China's fastest-growing major trade partner. Expect more Chinese suppliers, and more Chinese competitors, to set up in the region.

Sources: State Council (gov.cn)

Oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz

No change this week · last update 22 Oct

Brent rose about 1.2% to US$110.11 a barrel on 22 October, and WTI to US$98.12, after renewed attacks in Saudi Arabia led the US to order some diplomats' families to leave; Reuters counted at least 18 attacks on shipping over the previous two weeks. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained far below pre-war levels in late September: 132 transits in the week to 27 September, against roughly 130 a day before the war.

Why it matters: Fuel, freight and subsidy costs across the region remain exposed. Malaysia alone expects its 2026 fuel-subsidy bill to reach about RM40 billion because of the conflict.

Sources: Thailand Business News (citing Reuters) · Al Jazeera · Business Today

Sector highlights

Rules now in force, changes with a set date, significant proposals and concrete project openings. Only sectors with a material development appear each week; quiet sectors are left out rather than filled.

For Indonesian mining and minerals, see the Indonesia Mining Monitor →

Energy Thailand

Cabinet approves THB50 billion for rooftop solar on one million homes

On 27 October Thailand's cabinet approved a THB50 billion (about US$1.48 billion) programme to help one million households install rooftop solar within a year, with a subsidy of THB50,000 per household. It also approved more than THB20 billion of smart-grid investment so that households can sell surplus solar power to the grid.

Why it matters: A large, near-term demand pool for panel, inverter, storage and installation suppliers; the participation terms for installers and suppliers will decide who benefits.

In forceSource: The Edge Malaysia (Reuters) · PV Tech
Manufacturing Thailand

GC and SCGC agree terms to combine their Thai olefins and polyolefins businesses

On 29 October PTT Global Chemical (GC) and SCG Chemicals (SCGC) announced terms for a joint venture combining their olefins and polyolefins businesses in Thailand, with about 7.1 million tonnes a year of olefins capacity. GC would hold 56% and SCGC 44% through a share swap with no cash consideration, and the companies expect synergies of about US$150–200 million a year within three years. Shareholder meetings are planned for 3 December 2026, competition approval is to be sought in the first half of 2027, and the venture is expected to be established in the second half of 2027.

Why it matters: The deal would create one much larger producer at Map Ta Phut. Polyethylene and polypropylene buyers in Thailand, and competing suppliers, should plan for a single larger counterparty if approvals come through.

Proposed · 3 Dec 2026Source: GC company release (MarketScreener) · The Nation
Infrastructure Vietnam

Ho Chi Minh City approves 12 projects worth about US$13.6 billion

On 28 October, at the Autumn Economic Forum, Ho Chi Minh City announced 12 projects granted investment policy approval or investment registration certificates, with total investment above VND337.22 trillion (about US$13.58 billion). They span seaports, logistics, urban development, industrial infrastructure, manufacturing and high technology. The largest is the Can Gio International Transshipment Port, at VND128.8 trillion (US$4.92 billion) across 571 ha.

Why it matters: These are approvals, not construction starts: contractors and equipment and logistics suppliers can approach the named projects now, starting with the port.

Project leadSource: VietnamPlus

Key dates ahead

Policy decisions, data releases, rule changes and industry events.

4–6 NovVietnam Energy Week SECC, Ho Chi Minh City · Event · source
11–12 NovSolar & Storage Live Indonesia ICE BSD City, Tangerang · Event · source
15 NovChina: comments close on proposed technology export restrictions (Announcement No. 48)China · Policy · source
16–18 NovASEAN Summit (US President attending 16 Nov)Manila · Policy · source
17–19 NovAPEC meetingsShenzhen · Policy · reported · source
17–19 NovData Center Asia Malaysia MITEC, Kuala Lumpur · Event · reported · source
18 NovBank Indonesia policy-rate decision Indonesia · Policy · source
18 NovMalaysia official Q3 GDP release Malaysia · Data · source
18–20 NovSingapore FinTech FestivalSingapore EXPO · Event · source
18–21 NovMETALEX (machine tools and metalworking) BITEC, Bangkok · Event · source
1 DecLong Thanh International Airport: first commercial flights Dong Nai, Vietnam · Infrastructure · planned · source
2–5 DecManufacturing Indonesia JIExpo Kemayoran, Jakarta · Event · source
3–4 DecSEMIEXPO Viet Nam (semiconductors) Ho Chi Minh City · Event · source
3 DecGC and SCGC shareholder meetings on their olefins joint venture Thailand · Event · source
4 DecUS 15% tariff and minimum import prices on polysilicon products take effectUnited States · Policy · source
23 DecBank of Thailand policy-rate decision Thailand · Policy · source
1 Jan 2027China ends export VAT rebates on batteriesChina · Policy · source
1 Jan 2027Vietnam minimum-wage rise of 7.8% (if approved) Vietnam · Policy · proposed · source
1 Jan 2027Thailand higher excise tax on fully imported EVs (if approved) Thailand · Policy · proposed · source
31 Mar 2027Thailand duty exemption on flood-repair machinery ends Thailand · Policy · source
1 Apr 2027China cuts the export VAT rebate on new-energy vehicles from 13% to 9%China · Policy · source
30 Apr 2027MSCI consultation on Indonesia's market status closes Indonesia · Policy · source
30 Jun 2027MSCI decision on Indonesia due (on or before) Indonesia · Policy · source

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About this monitor

Compiled weekly by SEAIEA from official releases and named news sources. Every figure and statement links to its source. "Why it matters" lines are our interpretation.

Please note

For information only. This is not investment, legal or tax advice. Figures can be revised by the issuing authority; check the source before relying on a number.

This edition covers 24–30 October 2026. Built 1 Nov 2026.